A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
